Question:
Could summer be the new winter for UK mortality?
Answer:
It certainly seemed that way in 2022, with many weeks this summer seeing the number of deaths in the UK hit numbers more representative of weeks in February than in August!
2022 is shaping up to be another unusual year for UK mortality. The chart below captures how weekly deaths throughout 2022 (up to October) compare to the distribution of weekly deaths in the five years before the pandemic. The blue bars highlight weeks where we saw more deaths than the average for that week over 2015-2019, the green bars show weeks where we saw fewer deaths than the average for that week over 2015-2019. Whereas the winter saw fewer deaths than expected, the situation reversed during the summer.
Sources (data available at 14 October 2022) : ONS weekly deaths data, NRS (Scotland) weekly deaths data, NISRA (Northern Ireland) weekly deaths and GOV,UK daily deaths for UK & Nations.
Key takeaways:
The year began with lower mortality than usual for the time of year.
- Perhaps those who survived the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 were more resilient, or less vulnerable, as they entered 2022?
- Perhaps we have learned valuable lessons from the pandemic leading to longevity improvements / mortality reductions (e.g. increased hand washing reducing the circulation of flu or common cold)?
Unfortunately, the low mortality trend did not continue. Spring and summer of 2022 gave rise to more deaths than typical for those seasons. By the end of September, the cumulative ‘excess’ UK deaths exceeded 20,000 – this compares to over 80,000 and 60,000 ‘excess’ deaths over 2020 and 2021 respectively. However, deaths mentioning COVID-19 over this period were relatively low (c.5%).
The key questions are:
- What is causing the extra deaths observed in spring/summer of 2022?
- Will the pattern continue into the winter season (where we typically see higher mortality than over the summer) or could summer be the ‘new winter’ for 2022 mortality rates?
- What will this mean for DB pension schemes trying to understand the ‘new normal’ for mortality rates in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic?
We will monitor the changing situation over the months ahead to understand the impact on future DB pensioner life expectancy.