Question:
A festive classic from the British glam-rock band Wizzard exclaims: I wish it could be Christmas Every Day! But what would happen to life expectancy if it really was Christmas every day?
Answer:
We’ve explored the concept of excess winter deaths in a previous issue of Top Charts. In the UK, US and Canada, more people die in the winter months than during the rest of the year, with this phenomenon historically stronger in the UK than in the US and Canada. Extending this to the holiday season, we see the following increase in mortality in December compared to the full year.
Sources: 2022 deaths measured from 2 January – 31 December. December deaths from 4 December – 31 December. 2022 UK weekly deaths from the CMI mortality monitor software (downloaded 17 December 2024); 2022 US weekly deaths from CDC weekly death data (downloaded on 17 December, 2024); 2022 Canadian weekly deaths from Statistics Canada.Table 13-10-0792-01 (downloaded 17 December 2024). We note that the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may have had an impact on these ratios.
If we saw December levels of mortality all year round, we’d see a reduction in life expectancy at 65 of around 7 months in the US, 9.5 months in the UK and 10 months in Canada.
Source: Club Vita calculations using CV22 VitaCurves. CV22v1MPN/FPN for Canada, CV22v2MPN/FPN for UK and US
Other considerations:
- December is often associated with colder weather and higher prevalence of illness resulting in higher deaths than in the summer months. Those who survive these higher-risk periods may subsequently represent a “healthier” subset of the population – a phenomenon known as the survivorship effect. Therefore, it is unlikely that December mortality rates would persist year-round, even if December’s environmental conditions were replicated.
- More importantly, if lifestyle changes witnessed in the holiday period were replicated continually throughout the year, there may be significant impact on mortality and morbidity risk factors such as sedentarism, alcohol consumption and diet.
- Reporting delays over the holiday periods may also mean that we have underestimated the true impact of December excess deaths in the above calculations.
- Finally, note we have not allowed for the physiological or psychological impact of year-round exposure to Michael Bublé.
The key question is
- Would the reduction in longevity be worth it for year-round festivities?
What do you think?
Join the discussion on LinkedIn and Happy Holidays!